Friday, September 07, 2007

Time To Do That Gambling Thing Again...Just For Pretend, Of Course

If you check out the ads for various pointspread services, they'll often say something sensational along the lines of: "If you can win 60% of your games, you can win $100,000 in a month." Well, after one week, I'm right at 50% exactly. So if 60% means rich in a month, then 50% just means it will take a little bit longer, right?

Here are the college picks for this weekend.

Alabama -3.5 at Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt is an improving team, and Chris Nickson to Earl Bennett is a potent combination, but this isn't the day that Vandy ends its 22 game losing streak to the Crimson Tide. Besides, there's a bigger story at work here, which is just beginning to play itself out. Alabama is going to start the year out strong- possibly beating Arkansas and/or Georgia early- and Bama fans will revel in their genius of luring Nick Saban to Tuscaloosa. Then, just as the bandwagon is picking up steam, it will veer off course, crashing and burning with big losses to LSU and Auburn- only to save face in their bowl game and start the love-hate cycle anew. But if you want real numbers, there's this: Vanderbilt gave up 149 yards rushing to the Richmond Spiders. Alabama rushed for 313 in their first game, and should have no problem controlling this one.
Alabama 31 Vanderbilt 20.

Washington State -13.5 vs San Diego State
The Cougars hung tough with Wisconsin last week before eventually wearing down and losing by 3 tds. Nevertheless, I always like to bet on a team when they return home after an early test on the road, so long as they were respectable in that road game. Wazzu should be looking to reestablish some confidence and the Aztecs are usually more than accomodating.
Washington State 45 San Diego State 21.

Boise State -3 at Washington.
Jake Locker looked real good for the Huskies against Syracuse, and Washington fans have to be encouraged with the improvement in their offense. They should be able to put up a few points against Boise State. But Boise State's offense is a machine. Boise State has won 14 straight, during which they've only been held under 36 points twice. I think Washington will hang in early with help from the crowd, but Ian Johnson will wear down the defense and Boise State will pull away in the second half.
Boise State 41 Washington 24

BYU at UCLA under 47
It wasn't all that long ago that just one of these teams could surpass the 47 point total if these two were to match up. But these days, the Bruins and Cougars win with defense. Last week, BYU held Arizona to 7 points while the Bruins held Stanford to 17. Additionally, UCLA is a bit shaky at placekicker, making points a bit tougher to come by.
UCLA 21, BYU 16.

Oregon +7.5 at Michigan
One of two things will happen. One scenario is that Michigan will come out fired up, Mike Hart will break off a big run early, and the Wolverines will steamroll the Ducks. The other is that Chad Henne will turn the ball over early, leading to an Oregon score; and Michigan will tighten up, expecting bad things to happen. Anytime I'm faced with two choices and one includes a Henne turnover, I'm picking that one. By the way, Michigan still hasn't won since Bo Schembechler died. Maybe a seance is in order.
Oregon 19, Michigan 17

Florida -26.5 vs Troy
This might be a BCS championship game preview...sorta. It could be Gators-Trojans, tho it will be a different group calling themselves the Men of Troy. Last week, Florida beat Western Kentucky 49-3, and afterwards, Urban Meyer was actually disappointed with the way his defense played. I think Meyer will challenge his D, and they'll rise to the occasion. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Florida's defense outscored Troy's offense. Of course when Florida has the ball, they've got some guy named Tim Tebow that's supposed to be pretty good. This one will be ugly
Florida 52, Troy 10.

Best o' luck. Feel free to call me an idiot either before or after these games are resolved.

(Year to date: 4-4)


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