Thursday, September 13, 2007

Gambling: It's Not Just For Kids Anymore

Sorry for the lack of updates this week. The last few days have been a bit rough for me and I just haven't had the energy for any updates. Hopefully I can turn it around next week. What better way to start some momentum than with a little (hypothetical) gambling? Here are some picks for this weekend, which you should summarily dismiss:

USC -10
at Nebraska
USC is coming off of a bye week. One in which I'm sure Pete Carroll told his players that people are doubting them after their lackluster performance versus Idaho. I'm sure he also mentioned that LSU is nipping at their heels in the polls. This is a statement game for the Trojans, and Sam Keller, Bill Callahan and Marlon Lucky will be powerless to stop them. This one could be ugly.

Florida -8 vs Tennessee
Maybe I'm oversimplifying things on this one, but...if Cal and Florida were to play on a neutral field, I would have to think that Florida would be favored by at least six points. Given what Cal did to Tennessee earlier this year, I think Florida should be able to make this a two touchdown game.

Notre Dame +9.5 at Michigan
Notre Dame is awful, no doubt about it. Historically awful, even. They have negative rushing yards on the season, and have resorted to starting a true freshman quarterback. So why am I picking them? Because at this point, Michigan shouldn't be favored by 9.5 over anyone. Just imagine that Michigan is playing someone like Troy, or Army, or Middle Tennessee State instead of ND, and it should be easier to rationalize going with the underdog.

Fresno State at Oregon UNDER 64
Oregon will do their part to put up points, but going from losing a triple overtime game in College Station and then traveling to Autzen Stadium is just going to be too much for the Bulldogs.

UCLA at Utah OVER 44.5
UCLA's defense hasn't played a complete game yet, having lapses in the first half against Stanford and the second half against BYU. It's unlikely that they'll be interested enough against the Utes to put it all together this week either. That should suffice to give Utah around 17 points, which combined with UCLA's 30 will be enough to cover the over.

Colorado +4.5 vs Florida State
While ND/Michigan deservedly gets a lot of publicity, this is Hot Seat Bowl II. Dan Hawkins really needs a signature win to show that his hiring wasn't a mistake. Beating FSU might not be as impressive as it would have been a few years ago, but the name recognition alone would be enough to buy Hawkins some more time in his rebuilding process.

Enjoy your weekend. Good luck to all*.

*unless you're betting opposite my picks, in which case, screw you, man.

(YTD: 9-5)



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