Monday, October 31, 2005

NBA Action...It's cash-tastic

This year I'll be trying my theory of compounding interest with NBA wagers again. It worked great for me last year, and I ended the season up 1200%. I don't necessarily expect the same results every year, but I'm gonna keep going with it as long as I can.

It's a pretty simple system. The gap between the really good teams and the really bad teams in the NBA is huge right now. You almost never have a big upset in the NBA like you do in college sports or the NFL. So rather than worrying about the spread, I simply take the money line on the heavily favored team. Oftentimes, I'll be laying something in the neighborhood of -1000, or put another way laying 10 to win 1. But still that's a 10% gain for the bankroll. I then let the money ride on the next heavily favored team, one game at a time, each time picking up my 10% or so. After 8 consecutive wins, the money has doubled. At that point, I pigeonhole some of the profit just in case I stumble along the way.

Of course, the weakness of this system is obvious. Because you're letting the winnings ride at the beginning, all that has to happen is for one of the big underdogs to actually pull off the upset in the first 8 games, and you're toast.

The first game on my radar is New Orleans at Cleveland this Tuesday.

Turning Tricks for a Treat

So this year I ended up staying home and handing out candy for Halloween, which isn't the worst thing in the world because you can usually count on a few older chicks slutting it up and going door to door. This year's tally was a bit low. However I did encounter the following:

Two naughty nurses.
One costume that can only be described as "street whore."
Tattered witch (not sure if that one was intended to be naughty).

It wasn't quite the bounty I was hoping for. But hey, at least tonight's Monday Night Football is a classic. Oh wait....

Pacers Fighting for My Bankroll

Most sportsbooks have the Spurs as heavy favorites for the NBA title (+180) and with good reason. They're easily the deepest team in the league. Heck, their backups could probably make the playoffs as a starting 5 in the East.

But when betting on the champion, there's rarely a sure thing, so I like to look for a better risk/reward situation. Looking beyond the top two favorites (Miami is +275) we have:

Detroit +1000. I'm not sold on Flip Saunders as the guy that's going to be able to get the Pistons to play together as a team. He didn't do that great of a job w/ Sam Cassell or Sprewell in Minnesota, so I have no reason to believe he'll keep Rasheed Wallace focused on a title. He does however have experience playing crappy big guys (Nesterovic, Kandi), so maybe that means Darko will finally get some playing time. That automatically eliminates them.

Indiana +1000. I know this isn't a easy assumption to make, but if Jermaine O'Neal and Ron Artest play an entire season, this is a very dangerous team. Stephen Jackson isn't Reggie Miller, but he can hit the big 3 pt shot when you need it. I love the pick of Danny Granger in the draft. I think he'll be getting big minutes by the all-star break. The backcourt combo of Tinsley and Fred Jones is average at best, but I think it will be serviceable. Now that Larry Brown is officially insane, Rick Carlisle is the best coach in the East. I feel pretty good about Indiana's chances to represent the East.

New Jersey +5000. Longshot, sure, but at 50-1, it could be worth a flier. The frontcourt is horrible, but the combination of Richard Jefferson, Jason Kidd and Vince Carter (assuming Vince is willing to actually try this season) is pretty damn lethal. But when I think about a possible Finals matchup of Jason Collins versus Tim Duncan, well...on second thought, perhaps buying a lottery scratcher is a better move.

Seattle +7500. Another "if you have money to burn" longshot. But Ray Allen's playoff performance was the best I'd seen in a decade, so I thought I'd at least put the Sonics out there.

...So I'm going to put a little bit of cash on the Pacers. I can already see ABC working on their features of Reggie Miller and the Pacers winning it the year after he retires.